What Are the Odds?: A Statistical Guide to Certainty in an Uncertain World

Mark Prell

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Book cover for What Are the Odds?: A Statistical Guide to Certainty in an Uncertain World
Image for variant 9780674296367

What Are the Odds?: A Statistical Guide to Certainty in an Uncertain World

What Are the Odds?: A Statistical Guide to Certainty in an Uncertain World

Mark Prell

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Description

From bar bets to Nobel Prizes, viral outbreaks to lottery wins, how statistics shapes our choices, reveals hidden truths, and guides us toward certainty in uncertain times.

We live in an uncertain world. Morning commutes, natural disasters, global pandemics--our lives are riddled with events whose outcomes we can never know with certainty. In What Are the Odds? Mark Prell reveals how statistical thinking empowers us to navigate this uncertainty with clarity and confidence. Whether weighing the benefits of different medications or deciding if home insurance is worth the steep cost, Prell shows that just as important as asking what the data says is asking how reliable it is. Describing the core concepts and methods of statistical thinking, he teaches us how to extract meaningful information from raw data, and crucially, to recognize data that's been cherry-picked, fabricated, or is simply wrong. As we ask if survey responses are truthful, estimate the number of deaths from the Covid pandemic, and plan for retirement, we develop a skill set to test and update our assumptions, to make more accurate forecasts, and above all, to assess the certainty of our conclusions.

Through unforgettable stories of statistical ingenuity, Prell demonstrates that the underlying math can be intuitive and even fun. And as he turns us all into statisticians, he reminds us that statistics is about more than manipulating data--it's about joining a community of statisticians committed to truth and integrity.

Critical Reviews

A timely and refreshing take on a pillar of our democracy--statistics. Mark Prell makes the topic easily understandable through his use of everyday examples. It is the perfect response to those who wonder why it is important to understand statistical methods and findings in our lives. A wonderful primer for anyone who would like to make better decisions and sort through the avalanche of poorly designed studies and misinformation that makes up much of today's online content.--Nancy Potok, Former Chief Statistician of the United States

If you work with data, analyze information, or make evidence-based decisions, this book will make you better at doing so. The tools are all here, sure, but I think the big payoff is a sharpened perspective on what statistics are telling us, or not.--Leidy Klotz, author of Subtract

A masterful introduction to statistics that reveals why we need good-quality data and what can go wrong when we don't have it. Part story of statistics, part life manual, What Are the Odds? is an inspiring and motivational guide not just to harnessing the power of data but to doing so responsibly.--Parke Wilde, food economist and Professor at Tufts University

With fresh insights and perspective, Prell helps readers apply statistical thinking to navigate today's welter of information and data. A persuasive argument that it's not enough to interrogate statistical methods--we must interrogate the data itself.--Steve Pierson, Director of Science Policy, American Statistical Association

What Are the Odds? reminds us that good statistics require more than clever models--they require a culture grounded in honesty and mutual respect. Prell makes an unflinching case that such values are not niceties of science but its lifeblood.--Jing Cao, Professor and Chair, Department of Statistics and Data Science, Southern Methodist University, and formerly Chair of the American Statistical Association Committee on Professional Ethics

A terrific way to learn about--or teach--the fundamental, counterintuitive concepts of probability and statistics. Prell grounds his explanations in fascinating real-world examples that show how statistical concepts work--and why they are so often misunderstood.--Robyn Arianrhod, author of Vector

Publishing Information

Publisher: Harvard University Press
Pub date: 2026-04-14
Length: 496 pages

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